# 3rd Grade - Use Probability To Predict Future Events

 Grade Level: 3rd Skill: Fractions and Probability Topic: Use Probability to Predict Future Events Goal: Use the results of probability experiments to predict future events (e.g., use a line plot to predict the temperature forecast for the next day). Skill Description: Statistics, Data Analysis and Probability: use probability to predict future events The ability to understand trends and patterns to predict what might happen tomorrow or the next day based on those trends and patterns.

### Sample Problems

 (1) Kelly rolled the die 6 times and she rolled a 6, 5, 3, two 4s, and a 2. Do you think the next roll should be a 1? (There’s no way to predict which side will come up. It is always a 1 in 6 chance.) (2) The television show, Wipeout, comes on at 3:00pm on Saturdays. I flip the channels at 3:20 and look for the show. I can’t find it. Why might it not be on? (It’s not Saturday) (3) I shot 100 baskets and made 25. What is the likelihood that if I practice every day in a month I will shoot 100 baskets and make more than 25? (Likely because the number of baskets may very well improve with practice.) (4) Nancy’s family likes to eat at the Chinese restaurant down the street twice a week. Nancy makes a note of what days of the week they eat at the restaurant and she notices that they eat there every Friday and Sunday. What prediction can you make for next week? Will they eat there again? (They will eat there on Friday and Sunday) (5) Write a little story that could explain why Nancy’s family eats at the Chinese restaurant on those particular days. What might change your prediction? (stories will vary)

### Online Resources

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