# 3rd Grade - Are Events Likely To Happen?

 Grade Level: 3rd Skill: Fractions and Probability Topic: Are Events Likely to Happen? Goal: Identify whether common events are certain, likely, unlikely, or improbable. Skill Description: Statistics, Data Analysis and Probability: probability (certain, likely, unlikely, improbable) Some events are certain or likely to occur, whereas others are unlikely or improbable. Numbers can help us understand what situations might happen and what others might not.

### Sample Problems

 (1) Define probability: the likelihood or chance that an event will occur (2) Can math help us understand what might or might not happen in the world? Yes, probability is a special type of math that helps us make predictions about events. (3) How is probability written? Probability can be expressed as a fraction with the numerator being the total number of favorable outcomes, the denominator being the total number of possible outcomes. (4) Can probability only be talked about in numbers? (No, another way to talk about probability is to use words like certain and unlikely.) (5) If there are only three green M&M’s in your pocket and no others. How likely is it that you will get a green one if you reach in your pocket and pull out an M&M? (certain)

### Online Resources

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### Extra Help Problems

 (1) If you select a balloon without looking, how probable is it that you will get a red one? (draw a picture with 6 red balloons) (2) If you select a balloon without looking, how probable is it that you will get a purple one? (include same picture as above) (3) A bag contains 2 red, 3 blue and 4 purple marbles. Joseph draws one marble from the jar. What is the probability that Joseph will draw a purple marble? (4/9) (4) What if Joseph draws again after drawing a purple marble out of the bag? (3/8) (5) How many ways can you arrange a circle, square and triangle if you were to put them in a line? (6) Henry has a green shirt, blue shirt and black shirt. He has brown pants, black pants and white pants. Make a diagram to figure out how many different combinations of shirt and pants Henry could make. (7) Show a spinner with 8 sections, labeled 1-8. What is the probability of the spinner landing on an even number. (8) Show the same spinner. What is the probability of the spinner landing on the number 8. (9) Show a group of bowls with different numbers in them. The first has two 1’s, a 2 and a 3. The second has three 1’s and three 2’s. The third jar has one 1, two 2’s and one 3. Which jar gives you an equally likely chance of pulling a 1 and a 2? (10) Show a spinner divided into four quadrants, each a different color. What is the likelihood that the spinner will land on blue? (1/4) (11) Show the same spinner, but have two red quadrants. What is the likelihood that the spinner will land on red? (1/2) (12) You pull three coins out of your pocket. They add up to 51 cents. What is the likelihood that one of the coins is a penny? (100%//3/3) (13) You flip a quarter. What is the likelihood that it will be heads when it lands? (1/2/50%) (14) You flip a quarter. What is the likelihood that the tenth flip will be tails, if the other 9 flips have been heads? (1/2/50%) (15) You roll a die. What is the probability that it will land on 5? (1/6) (16) If you roll two dice. Does the probability change? (17) Show a weather map of a week’s weather. It’s been sunny all week. Is it likely that it will be sunny tomorrow? (18) Show ten yellow marbles. If you select a marble, how likely is it that it will be yellow? (certain) (19) Show ten yellow marbles. If you select a marble, how likely is it that it will be red? (impossible) (20) Show 6 coins: 5 quarters and 1 dime. If you reach in your pocket and select one of these coins, how likely is it that you will get a quarter? (probable) (21) There are five cows and a rooster that live on a farm. How likely is it that you will get fresh eggs from the animals on the farm? (impossible) (22) There are twenty students in your class and your mom brings 21 cupcakes for your birthday celebration. How likely is it that every child will get a cupcake? (very likely) (23) If there are two doors to choose from, how likely is it that you will go through the right door. (50%/1/2) (24) There are no more tryouts for the school play. You didn’t try out. How likely is it that you will be in the play? (unlikely) (25) The sheep and the horse visit the pig outside the barn each day at noon. If you walk by the barn at lunchtime, how likely is it that you will see the pig? (very likely)